Serra Out - What Now?

With the string of setbacks the UFC has encountered this year, it seems only fitting to end the year with one that will have a ripple effect on the welterweight division well into 2008.



The current UFC 170lb champion, Matt Serra, has been forced to pull out of his December 29th title defense against Matt Hughes. Serra suffered a herniated disc in his back while training at his gym in Long Island. It is unknown how long Serra will be forced to the sidelines for, but I would imagine he'll be out for quite some time.



So now the matchup in December is no longer a title fight. The welterweight championship will be shelfed until either Serra returns or an interim title is put into the mix.

So who fights who at UFC 79?

Matt Hughes is currently still on the card, but has no opponent. If he remains on the card, there are a few fighters who could take the fight on short notice.

Jon Fitch. This guy is a tough fighter who has won all seven of his fights in the UFC. He was well on his way to a title shot possibly in late 2008. He scored a split decision victory in his last bout against Diego Sanchez and holds wins over the likes of Josh Burkman, Thiago Alves, and Kuniyoshi Hironaka. I had assumed that he would next fight either Josh Koscheck or the loser of the Serra-Hughes fight. If he fights Hughes on December 29th, even if he wins, he will still have to wait for his shot at the title since Georges St. Pierre is still next in line to the title. I will detail GSP-Fitch in just a bit.

Josh Koscheck. Although he lost his bout against St. Pierre in August, he still managed to take the former champ the distance with St. Pierre winning via unanimous decision. Koscheck is a very talented wrestler and could pose an interesting matchup for Hughes. Although this match has the potential to be a boring fight, it brings to the table an interesting threat to Hughes. If 'Kos' can stay off his back, I believe he can win this fight. His striking has greatly improved and in my opinion he would get the better of Hughes in a standup war. Also, a win over Hughes would send Koscheck back into contention. Even if he loses to Hughes and makes it back-to-back losses, he will have lost to the top two welterweights. Back to back losses to fighters of that calibre will do nothing to hurt his reputation as a fighter.

Georges St. Pierre. This would be interesting because I don't think this would be a fight that Hughes would want. If UFC matchmaker Joe Silva came knocking on GSP's door, it's questionable whether or not Georges would take the fight. This fight would do nothing for St. Pierre. He has nothing to gain by fighting Hughes right now. If he wins this fight, he would still be where he is right now...and that's waiting for his title shot. If he loses, then he would be dropped from title contention. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose by taking this fight. In the same respect, this is not a fight that Hughes wants either. Hughes knows that he cannot beat St. Pierre. If St. Pierre were to take this fight, I would assume that Hughes would go crying to Dana White and protest. Hughes doesn't have very many fights left in him, and if he loses to St. Pierre, he would drop from contention, putting that title shot even further into the distance. The way I had seen this thing playing out with Serra still in the mix, was that Hughes would fight Serra, win the title, and then lose it to St. Pierre, at which time he would announce his retirement. If he fights St. Pierre in December and loses, I would assume that would be the last we see of Hughes.

So what happens in 2008?

St. Pierre can't wait any longer to fight. Even if Serra hadn't been injured, he wouldn't be fighting until late March or early April. With the title fight not happening in December, it's likely (given that Serra recovers quickly) that there won't be a title fight until the time that GSP was supposed to get his shot. But since there is no title fight in December, GSP will not be the fighter challenging for the title at this time. Meaning, St. Pierre's shot at the title is being pushed back even further...at least 3 months after the March/April date. He simply can't wait that long to fight. So he WILL have to fight someone else in the meantime. This brings me back to the Jon Fitch-GSP comment I made earlier. It's possible that if GSP doesn't fight in December, that he'll fight Jon Fitch early 2008. This again, is a lose-lose situation for GSP, but there's no way around fighting someone else and waiting for a shot a the title. Fitch would have nothing to lose in taking this fight. If he loses, he's supposed to lose. If he wins, then he takes over St. Pierre's spot as next in line to the title.

There are a few possibilities that could be put in place, depending on how long Serra is out.

If Serra can fight by the March/April date. St. Pierre's best option would be to take the fight with Hughes in December. If he wins that fight, then the date he fights for the title will not change. He will then, hopefully, fight for the title in Montreal as planned.

If Serra's injury causes him to be sidelined for a lengthy period of time, an interim title can be put in place. If this happens, I assume that the interim title won't be in place until after December when we know for sure how long Serra will be out.

From here there are several scenarios.

St. Pierre doesn't fight Hughes at UFC 79. The winner of the Hughes-Replacement fight (Hughes vs Fitch?) will fight St. Pierre for the title in March/April.

St. Pierre fights Hughes at UFC 79. Koscheck and Fitch fight in early 2008 and the winner of that fight faces the winner of the GSP-Hughes fight for the interim title.

Lots of questions now loom in the wake of these recent developments, let's see what Dana White and the UFC can do.